La Liga Half Time Draw Bet

An interesting stat from @JamesOzzyWatson

54% of games in La Liga with odds for U2.5 goals less than 1.8 have seen a HT draw result.  That implies that if you can get odds of 1.85 or more on the HT draw in such games, there is a heavy dose of value.  Something I’ve had a lot of success with this season is picking out such games – Osasuna vs. Celta being the most recent (the secret being you can pretty much get 2.1 on every single La Liga game).

The relationship does not hold for premier league games. Only really short odds seem to work (<1.7), but v.small sample.  Makes complete sense – expected low scoring games are naturally tighter and likely to draw.   Don’t know why the La Liga markets are priced like this, 4 of the 5 La Liga games this Saturday are under 1.8.


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Posted on February 5, 2013, in Gambling and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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