Champions League Betting Preview

Info from @SportingbetMark

AC Milan v Barcelona

I think FCB are the right price but there’s value in getting with Milan +1. FCB W3/12 KO away games now & only 2 by more than 1 goal.  Further, only 3/28 #UCL 1st leg Last 16 games saw the away team win by more than 1 goal & FCB W2/5 away now & 0 clean sheet in 7 away.  BTTS worth a play. That FCB away clean sheet stat, plus it’s banked in 11/13 away La Liga games. 8/11 Milan home Serie A games went BTTS.  If you like a special, we’re 5/6 on FCB win (which I expect) & Messi to score. He’s 56 in 74 #UCL games & 42 in league & #UCL this season!

Galatasaray v Schalke

Small move for Galatasaray (11/10 from 6/5) & I’m with it tonight. W9 D3 L2 last 14 & squad bolstered. Schalke struggling & absentees.  Schalke W1 D5 L6 last 12, KJH struggling & leaked 12 in 5. Gala strong enough to give them hell tonight 7 increase pressure on Keller.  Interestingly, 13 of the 17 goals by both sides combined in the group phase came in the 2nd half. That’s another option to play.

Arsenal v Bayern Munich

Bayern 17/20 from 21/20 & no price for me. Have to be opposed. Arsenal now similar prices from when they beat Barcelona back in 2011.  Arsenal L2/17 home KO #UCL games – both v English sides. Bayern lost last 4 away to English sides. Arsenal W6/7 v Germans at home in#UCL Of course overwhelming stats in Bayern’s favour but only 1/6 clean sheets in groups. Held in Valencia, lost in BATE. Badstuber & Boateng out

FC Porto v Malaga

Big fan of Porto. Only L2 all season & clean sheets in 8/10 home in league. Only L1/11 home #UCL KO games & had 2nd best defence in groups.  Move for Porto too – 5/6 to 4/6. Porto W3 D4 last 7 v Spanishsides in#UCL, OL/19 at home. Malaga L1/24 in Europe – that loss came v Porto.  If you like a goalscorer, Jackson Martinez is your man. Scored 3 in 4 in #UCL for Porto & netted 18 in 22 – including his last 10.

Shakhtar v B Dortmund

I’m tempted to snub Real-Man Utd for Shakhtar-BVB. Expecting goals & BTTS my strongest chosen play but can see why BVB are favs for this.  Shakhtar lost Willian in January & not played competitively since December! But BVB without Gundogan (W0/5 without him) & LB issues.  Shakhtar W2 D2 L3 last 7 at home in #UCL. BVB unbeaten in #UCLthis term but only W1/6 away in #UCL. So rather invest in goals.  BVB scored in last 20 away. 1 clean sheet in 19 away in #UCL & scored 7 in 3 away group games (0 CS). Only 3/17 away clean sheets this term.  Shakhtar leaked in 6 last 7 at home. 3/6 group games went O2.5 & 11/16 at home gone O2.5. BVB away have seen 12/17 go O2.5.

Real Madrid v Man Utd

Despite ManU’s price, can’t find any faith to back them. D2 L2 in Real leaking 3 in 3 of those 4. Only W2/20 in Spain & Real OL/32 at home.  Real W15 D4 home this term only L3/31 in #UCL & Mourinho W6 D6 L2 v SAF. Goals probably the best route of attack but tiny prices.  Last 8 h2h seen 31 goals (3.9gpg), Real scored in 30/31 #UC; games (33 in 9 home #UCL games) but leaked 9 in 6 in groups (0 clean sheets).  O2.5 in 10/11 Real #UCL games, 0 clean sheet in 9 in #UCL either. Man Utd only 3/13 away #BPL clean sheets. So can see why prices are small.  Man Utd have leaked opener in last 5 #UCL games. Real scored in first half in 5 of their 6 #UCL games. Real/Real could appeal on that.  Interestingly, 8/11 Man Utd away KO #UCL games have gone U2.5. Oh and there’s Ronaldo’s 103 goals in 89 home Real games. Wow.

Valencia v PSG

PSG’s price may appeal but I’m cautious. Valencia W6 D3 last 9 at home in #UCL & W5 D2 L2 in all comps. Also held Bayern at home in#UCL.  PSG W11 D1 last 12 & leaked 1 in last 9 in L1. They won their last 4#UCL games but without Thiago Silva & Motta tonight. Reason to leave.  Do like BTTS at Valencia. Valencia netted 10/12 home in LL & 3/3 home in #UCL. Only 1 clean sheet in 6 & only 5 in their last 21 matches now  PSG netted 2+ in last 4 #UCL games & overall have scored in 28 of their last 31 matches. Not convinced they’ll keep Valencia out either.  Elsewhere, Zlatan may have scored 11 in his last 15 PSG games but he’s only scored 4 in 27 #UCL knockout fixtures. He’s fav for FGS tonight.

Celtic v Juventus

Can’t wait for Celtic-Juve. Celtic L2/23 at home in #UCL (both v FCB) & are W2 D2 in 4 home games v Italian clubs. Celtic double chance.  Juve W4 D3 L2 since winter & just can’t be backed at their odds-on quotes despite OL/6 in #UCL, 2nd best defence & W3 to nil on trot in#UCL.  Looking for goals, O2.5 in Celtic’s last 5 in #UCL, Juve have Chiellini out & only 2 clean sheets in 10 despite superb defensive record.  Time of 1st goal (31min-90min) interests. 60% Celtic’s goals come in 2nd half & Juve netted before 30m in 4/15 away in SerieA & 1/3 in#UCL.  Elsewhere, 5 of Juve’s last 6 away seen more goals in 2nd half than first. Oh and Celtic have opened scoring in 18/21 home games this season


Posted on February 19, 2013, in Gambling and tagged , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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