Champions League Betting Preview

Stats courtesy of @SportingbetMark

Best backed teams tonight (in order) are CFC, Napoli, Basel, FCB & Atleti. Traders want Basel & CFC onside but happy to oppose Celtic.  BVB 4/6 from 3/4 and Ajax 3/4 from 9/10 the main moves to mention. Biggest punts coming in for Napoli but last night hit punters hard.

FCB-Milan. FCB last 2 home v Milan scoring 7. Milan worst start since 1981. W3/16 away #UCL & W1/11 away in Spain. Only W1/7 anywhere now.  Goals good though. Milan scored in 15/16 this term & netted in 2 last 3 at FCB. FCB leaked in 7/10 home #UCL games too. Home win/BTTS.

Ajax-Celtic. Ajax L1/19 home (at weekend) & scored 17 in 8 home but 6th in league. Celtic W1 D1 L23 #UCL away & 0CS away since 1988 in #UCL!  Celtic L11/12 away group #UCL games. Only scored 3 in last 4 away in #UCL (all v Cliftonville). Ajax W0/6 in #UCL, leaking 2+ in 5/6.  Ajax scored just 2 in 3 #UCL. Celtic last 3 away gone U2.5 but 4/5 previous had O2.5. Ajax 7/8 in #UCL O2.5 and 3/4 gone O3.5.

Atleti-AV. Atleti strolled to 3-0W fortnight ago. W11/12 in LL. Only W1 D3 L1 last 5 home in #UCL but -2 and win to nil both appeal tonight.  Atleti won to nil in 3/4 & kept CS v FCB & Real this term. AV W2/13, coach Nenad Bjelica banned & L3/3 in #UCL to nil this term.  Austrian sides scored just 12 in 22 away #UCL & picked up just 1pt from last 11 group games. Leaked 55 in 22 away in #UCL. Average 2.5gpg.

Napoli-Marseille. Napoli W4 on spin & L2/14 this term. OL home in 2013. W5 L2 last 7 in #UCL & never lost home in Europe’s premier comp.  Napoli only failed to net once in #UCL & only leaked 3 at home this tem. Led at HT-FT in 8/10 games. 18 of their goals have come in 1st half.  Marseille L6 on spin in #UCL, leaking 2+ in each. They’ve D1 L5 last 6 in all comps & managed just 2 goals in their L3/3 in #UCL this term.

BVB-Arsenal. BVB W8/8 home & W7 home in #UCL on spin. Top Bundesliga scorers & never lost home to English opposition. Arsenal W6/7 away.  Flamini missing key, IMO. Goals likeliest again. Arsenal scored in last 10 #UCL & in 16/17 this term. BVB only 1/7 CS in #UCL & 02.5 in 6/7.  2nd half highest scoring in 7/8 BVB home this term & in 6/7 in #UCL. Same bet paid out in 6/8 Arsenal away games now too and looks decent.

Basel-Steaua. Basel only D1-1 away but W6/9 home this term & only L1 in league. Safari & Stocker doubts. W5/8 home in #UCL now.  Steaua W10/12 domestically but W4/39 #UCL & W0/9 away group games. 2/21 away CS #UCL & netted 1 in 6 in #UCL. basel only 2/26 CS in #UCL.

CFC-Schalke.  CFC W8 D1 L1 last 10 now inc W3-0 in S04. Schalke only L1/12 away in Europe, W6 D1 last 7 away & W9 D1 L3 last 13 anywhere.  But S04 have lost to the big guns. No Farfan, KJH or Hoger. Leaked 22 in 10 in Bundesliga. CFC -1 paid out in 5/7 games now & looks a bet.  CFC only L1/30 home group games now, W5 D1 home v German sides inc 5 CS. Goals also options. S04 scored in 9/10 away & in 14/17 overall.  S04 scored in 11/12 #UCL whilst CFC kept 2/6 home CS this season & O2.5 in last 9 #UCL. 12 of 16 Group E goals have come in 2nd half.

Zenith-Porto. Porto outplayed them a fortnight ago with 10-men despite L1-0. Both top domestically but suffered disappointing weekend draws.  Zenit without Smolnikov but W4 D5 L1 last 10 home in #UCL.W7 D3 home this term but only scored 11 in 13 #UCL games now.  Porto 4 CS in 6 away #UCL but only W1/4 in comp & actually L5/9 away in #UCL.U2.5 only interest. Shirokov has 10 gls in 13 from midfield.

MCFC-CSKA. Couple of interest. City scored before 17th min in last 3 home games. CSKA already leaked 5 in first-half in #UCL this season.  MCFC O2.5 – netted 33 last 11 & 26 in 7 home. CSKA leaked 19 in 11 & 2+ in last 4 in #UCL. MCFC won 9 of their 10 wins this term by 2+.

Plzen-Bayern. Plzen leaked 11 in 3 in #UCL & just 6 shots on target. Only W2/6 & just 1/8 CS in all comps. Bayern W8 #UCL on the trot.  Bayern W5-0 a fortnight ago, having 35 shots. Scored 2+ last 8 #UCL & 6/8 #UCL CS. Scored 14 last 4 & netted 32 in 11 this term but 1/6 CS.
 
PSG – Ant.  PSG 1/9 despite Zlatan & Cavani rated huge doubts. OL/11 in Europe & scored 12 in 3 & won by 3+ in each. Also kept 5/7 home CS this season.  Anderlecht leaked 15 in last 5 in #UCL & failed to net in all 3 group games. L/L double result in 3/3. O3.5 in 8/14 & last 4 for PSG.

Olympiakos-Benfica. Olympiakos 5/4 from 27/20. Benfica W3/19 away in #UCL & missing plenty tonight. Failed to net in 3/4 #UCL away.  Played out 1-1 draw a fortnight ago but Olympiakos arrive on back of 1-0 derby win at Pana. However O/8 CS home in #UCL now.

Juve-Real. Real well backed at 9/5. Scored 10 last 2 but yet to fully convince, IMO. Juve better team in Bernabeu & W3 to nil on trot.  Juve only L3 home in 2 years but only W4/11 home #UCL. Real DNB does appeal. Juve OW/5 & OCS/5 in #UCL. Real scored 2+ in 7/8 in #UCL.  Real leaked 7 in last 3. However only Arsenal (2010-11) scored more after 3 #UCL games than Real’s 12. Chiellini & Lichtsteiner big misses.

FCK-Galatasaray. Gala out to 5/4 from 19/20 with Muslera & Sneijder out. Have W3/5 away in #UCL but FCK only L1/8 home #UCL now.  FCK OL/4 & despite Gala W4/4 I’d want FCK onside. BTTS better. FCK only 1/9 #UCL CS & 0/14 away #UCL CS for Gala. O2.5 in last 6 Gala #UCL.

Shakhtar-Bayer. Bayer 11/4 to 21/10 & L2/19 in league. Also W6/9 away & beat Shakhtar 4-0 a fortnight ago but O/13 CS in #UCL away.  Shakhtar OL/19 home inc 10 this season & 6 CS but only W4/9 domestically & W3/10 in #UCL. Bayer scored 2+ in last 3 in #UCL & O2.5 in 8/9.  Great stat on Shakhtar. Already dropped 13 points in the league this season from 15 games – more than they did in the whole of last season!

Sociedad-MUFC. MUFC eased to 29/20 from 27/20. They’ve W2/21 away to La Liga teams & 8/35 v Spanish sides anywhere. Prefer BTTS.  Sociedad scored 2+ in last 4 & in 18/20 home. MUFC only 3/11 CS & 1/10 CS in #UCL inc 0/5 away. BTTS in 7/9 MUFC away in Europe.

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Posted on November 5, 2013, in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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